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The Marlboro men go global
Once upon a time, the Marlboro Man rode alone on his horse across a rugged Western landscape.
Now, with smoking increasingly unpopular in the U.S. and Europe, he has to circle the globe to rustle up smokers. Look where he’s been spotted in emerging markets:
* The Marlboro Man is busy learning Chinese, preparing to win over an emerging middle class in China, the world’s biggest cigarette market.
* He’s in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, persuading workers with rising incomes to trade up from the lowly bidi, a popular smoke made from tobacco wrapped in a leaf, known for its fruity flavoring and potent kick.
* In Mexico, he’s greeting youngsters with a warm “Hola!” to build market share.
All of this will wind up being bad for the health of smokers in these parts of the world. But for investors, it’s positive, particularly since the Marlboro Man’s international sponsor, Philip Morris International (PM, news, msgs), was just spun off from U.S. cigarette maker Altria (MO, news, msgs).
Investors can now profit from a clean play on the all-but-guaranteed success of the Marlboro Man as he wins over emerging middle classes around the world.
“The U.S. has seen a secular erosion in cigarette sales, declining 2% to 4% a year, but that is not at all the case globally,” says Charles Norton, the manager of the Vice Fund (VICEX), which owns shares of Philip Morris. “The world is a tremendous growth opportunity. Philip Morris has plenty of room to increase its market penetration internationally. There is a real growth story.”
Besides wooing smokers around the globe, Philip Morris International plans to increase prices and cut costs. Soon it will buy back stock aggressively.
Together, these tactics should lift profits by 12% a year over the next five years, on annual sales growth of 4% to 5%. That’s the forecast of Goldman Sachs (GS, news, msgs) analyst Judy Hong. She thinks these trends will drive this “must own” tobacco stock to $60 a share in a year. (The stock closed at $50 on Tuesday.)
Source: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/TheMarlboroMenGoGlobal.aspx
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